Hurricanes, Crisis, and Groupthink: An analysis

Here I am in Louisiana on the eve of Hurricane Rita's landfall somewhere between here and Texas. I was also here for Hurricane Katrina's landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Florida. You might say that I've an affinity for hurricanes. Rita in particular is showing humanity in some fascinating colors.

100 miles of cars backed up between Galveston and Dallas, Texas. Helpful comment by Weather Channel announcer: Maybe they could get some buses in there to help get people off the highway. Question: How would you get the buses in and out, with helicopters?

The bus concept is an example of groupthink: the problem with Katrina devastating New Orleans was not enough buses to cart those poor unfortunate people out of the city. So: in any hurricane, you need lots of buses to help those in crisis. WRONG!

Groupthink is often, but not always wrong. The media is particularly subject to groupthink, because so many announcers are of average intelligence. They think like the next person, which is to say, superficially.

Another example: We've learned from Hurricane Katrina exactly how serious a hurricane can be and there are steps to take which will make everything orderly. WRONG!

Hurricanes are unpredictable. With Katrina and now Rita, as with so many hurricanes, you have no idea exactly where it will end up, ESPECIALLY when you need to be making decisions. As a result, people are going to follow groupthink: they will evacuate when they see EVERYONE ELSE evacuating, and NOT BEFORE. We drove over to Baton Rouge from the west early in the morning on Thursday. It was sunny and a regular day, except for a few Texans in a hurry. By the afternoon, the interstate was at a standstill, as we watched from a Baton Rouge apartment.

How do you escape groupthink? If only doing the opposite would work, but that won't work. The only possible way out of groupthink is to gather data diligently and then make very conservative choices. Look beyond the emotional sources of news like the network and weather channels. After all, they are entertainers, not newscasters. They are selling cars and trucks and exercise equipment. Sad but increasingly true. The internet, if used in a very broad sweep, can yield useful information. Constantly separate fact from opinion, rumor from reality, and ALWAYS be on the lookout for individuals with insights and other individuals who are stupidly transmitting false information.

For example, boingboing.net sends us the blog of Kathryn Cramer, who notes that the intensity of Rita seems to be changing in correlation to the depth of the basin of the Gulf of Mexico. This very interesting observation bears notice, however it is most likely that 1) it will be noticed by the media who will turn it into a pseudo-theory or 2) it will go completely ignored. What almost certainly WON'T happen is 3) it will be noticed by weather scientists and tested as a possible factor (among many) in determining the behavior of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Groupthink will continue to blind humankind to real observation, resulting in more emotional turf-war confrontations and yammering. Meanwhile my friends in New Orleans are hours of the same loop footage of their homes being re-flooded while the rest of us yearn for real information to come across our television sets.